Charleston Southern

Conference:	BSth
Expected RPI:	261.0
Current RPI:	261
Expected SOS:	314
Current SOS:	314
Current Record:	12-16
Expected Record:	12-16
Current Conf Record:	10-10
Expected Conf Record:	10-10
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	2-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	9-8
Current OOC Record:	2-6
Expected OOC Record:	2-6
Expected OOC RPI:	292
Expected OOC SOS:	313

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
12-16	261.0	100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Charleston Southern.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Location	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-10	Davidson (47.0)	A10	A	110-62	L	0%
11-12	North Carolina St. (64.0)	ACC	A	78-56	L	0%
11-18	USC Upstate (344.0)	ASun	A	72-82	W	100%
11-25	Illinois St. (85.0)	MVC	A	62-64	W	100%
11-28	VMI (313.0)	SC	H	68-76	L	0%
12-12	South Carolina St. (331.0)	MEAC	A	91-88	L	0%
12-15	Eastern Kentucky (271.0)	OVC	H	65-70	L	0%
12-18	Florida St. (54.0)	ACC	A	69-58	L	0%
12-30	Longwood (337.0)	BSth	H	84-43	W	100%
1-2	Liberty (211.0)	BSth	A	70-53	L	0%
1-6	High Point (273.0)	BSth	A	80-59	L	0%
1-9	Radford (128.0)	BSth	H	61-64	L	0%
1-12	Winthrop (173.0)	BSth	H	53-64	L	0%
1-15	UNC Asheville (130.0)	BSth	A	83-73	L	0%
1-18	Campbell (267.0)	BSth	A	62-47	L	0%
1-21	Gardner Webb (244.0)	BSth	H	83-68	W	100%
1-24	Presbyterian (319.0)	BSth	H	49-57	L	0%
1-27	Radford (128.0)	BSth	A	81-84	W	100%
2-1	High Point (273.0)	BSth	H	83-74	W	100%
2-3	Gardner Webb (244.0)	BSth	A	63-61	L	0%
2-7	Liberty (211.0)	BSth	H	87-75	W	100%
2-10	Presbyterian (319.0)	BSth	A	54-64	W	100%
2-15	Longwood (337.0)	BSth	A	65-77	W	100%
2-18	UNC Asheville (130.0)	BSth	H	80-85	L	0%
2-22	Campbell (267.0)	BSth	H	72-68	W	100%
2-24	Winthrop (173.0)	BSth	A	75-78	W	100%
2-27	Presbyterian (319.0)	BSth	H	68-51	W	100%
3-1	UNC Asheville (130.0)	BSth	A	71-66	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Charleston Southern's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Charleston Southern's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Charleston Southern.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Charleston Southern	BSth	26.63	26.63	45.45	45.45	-2.42	-2.42
UNC Asheville	BSth	6.49	6.49	57.14	57.14	0.93	0.93
Presbyterian	BSth	6.48	6.48	26.92	26.92	-2.99	-2.99
Radford	BSth	4.89	4.89	63.33	63.33	1.30	1.30
Liberty	BSth	4.88	4.88	55.17	55.17	0.50	0.50
Longwood	BSth	4.82	4.82	14.29	14.29	-3.44	-3.44
Winthrop	BSth	4.80	4.80	57.69	57.69	0.74	0.74
Gardner Webb	BSth	4.76	4.76	37.04	37.04	-1.23	-1.23
Campbell	BSth	4.75	4.75	46.15	46.15	-0.37	-0.37
High Point	BSth	4.71	4.71	40.00	40.00	-0.94	-0.94
VMI	SC	2.05	2.05	22.22	22.22	-1.14	-1.14
USC Upstate	ASun	2.00	2.00	11.11	11.11	-1.55	-1.55
South Carolina St.	MEAC	1.97	1.97	24.14	24.14	-1.02	-1.02
North Carolina St.	ACC	1.97	1.97	64.52	64.52	0.57	0.57
Davidson	A10	1.82	1.82	64.52	64.52	0.53	0.53
Florida St.	ACC	1.81	1.81	63.33	63.33	0.48	0.48
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	1.79	1.79	28.57	28.57	-0.77	-0.77
Illinois St.	MVC	1.79	1.79	54.84	54.84	0.17	0.17
UNC Greensboro	SC	0.39	0.39	77.42	77.42	0.21	0.21
The Citadel	SC	0.25	0.25	27.59	27.59	-0.11	-0.11
Furman	SC	0.24	0.24	67.74	67.74	0.09	0.09
Western Carolina	SC	0.22	0.22	36.67	36.67	-0.06	-0.06
Wofford	SC	0.22	0.22	60.00	60.00	0.04	0.04
Jacksonville	ASun	0.21	0.21	37.93	37.93	-0.05	-0.05
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.20	0.20	65.62	65.62	0.06	0.06
Clemson	ACC	0.20	0.20	71.88	71.88	0.09	0.09
Charlotte	CUSA	0.19	0.19	17.86	17.86	-0.12	-0.12
Tennessee	SEC	0.19	0.19	75.76	75.76	0.10	0.10
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.18	0.18	56.25	56.25	0.02	0.02
Rhode Island	A10	0.17	0.17	78.12	78.12	0.10	0.10
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.15	0.15	59.38	59.38	0.03	0.03
Miami FL	ACC	0.15	0.15	70.97	70.97	0.06	0.06
Boston College	ACC	0.14	0.14	55.88	55.88	0.02	0.02
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.14	0.14	37.50	37.50	-0.04	-0.04
Wake Forest	ACC	0.14	0.14	35.48	35.48	-0.04	-0.04
Stetson	ASun	0.13	0.13	28.57	28.57	-0.05	-0.05
Auburn	SEC	0.13	0.13	78.12	78.12	0.07	0.07
VCU	A10	0.12	0.12	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.12	0.12	64.52	64.52	0.04	0.04
Pittsburgh	ACC	0.12	0.12	25.00	25.00	-0.06	-0.06
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.12	0.12	25.81	25.81	-0.06	-0.06
Mercer	SC	0.12	0.12	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Hampton	MEAC	0.12	0.12	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
East Carolina	Amer	0.12	0.12	33.33	33.33	-0.04	-0.04
Saint Louis	A10	0.12	0.12	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Austin Peay	OVC	0.12	0.12	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Louisville	ACC	0.11	0.11	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
North Carolina	ACC	0.11	0.11	71.43	71.43	0.05	0.05
Nevada	MWC	0.11	0.11	79.41	79.41	0.07	0.07
College of Charleston	CAA	0.10	0.10	77.42	77.42	0.05	0.05
Abilene Christian	Slnd	0.10	0.10	44.44	44.44	-0.01	-0.01
Bowling Green	MAC	0.10	0.10	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Georgia	SEC	0.10	0.10	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.09	0.09	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
Colorado St.	MWC	0.09	0.09	32.26	32.26	-0.03	-0.03
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.09	0.09	28.57	28.57	-0.04	-0.04
Chicago St.	WAC	0.09	0.09	3.33	3.33	-0.09	-0.09
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.09	0.09	60.71	60.71	0.02	0.02
Penn St.	B10	0.09	0.09	61.76	61.76	0.02	0.02
UNC Wilmington	CAA	0.09	0.09	30.00	30.00	-0.04	-0.04
UCF	Amer	0.09	0.09	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
Florida	SEC	0.09	0.09	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.09	0.09	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Howard	MEAC	0.09	0.09	25.81	25.81	-0.04	-0.04
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.09	0.09	16.67	16.67	-0.06	-0.06
Monmouth	MAAC	0.09	0.09	35.48	35.48	-0.03	-0.03
Saint Mary's	WCC	0.09	0.09	84.85	84.85	0.06	0.06
Fordham	A10	0.08	0.08	29.03	29.03	-0.04	-0.04
George Washington	A10	0.08	0.08	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Notre Dame	ACC	0.08	0.08	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Virginia	ACC	0.08	0.08	93.94	93.94	0.07	0.07
Indiana St.	MVC	0.08	0.08	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
Loyola Chicago	MVC	0.08	0.08	84.38	84.38	0.06	0.06
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.08	0.08	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.08	0.08	78.12	78.12	0.05	0.05
William & Mary	CAA	0.07	0.07	58.62	58.62	0.01	0.01
Chattanooga	SC	0.06	0.06	25.81	25.81	-0.03	-0.03
East Tennessee St.	SC	0.06	0.06	71.88	71.88	0.03	0.03
Lipscomb	ASun	0.06	0.06	68.97	68.97	0.02	0.02
NJIT	ASun	0.06	0.06	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
North Florida	ASun	0.06	0.06	36.67	36.67	-0.02	-0.02
Samford	SC	0.06	0.06	26.67	26.67	-0.03	-0.03
Belmont	OVC	0.06	0.06	72.73	72.73	0.03	0.03
Fairfield	MAAC	0.06	0.06	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Maryland	B10	0.06	0.06	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Morehead St.	OVC	0.06	0.06	22.22	22.22	-0.03	-0.03
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.06	0.06	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.06	0.06	27.59	27.59	-0.03	-0.03
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.06	0.06	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.06	0.06	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Wright St.	Horz	0.06	0.06	71.88	71.88	0.03	0.03
Duquesne	A10	0.06	0.06	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
UMKC	WAC	0.06	0.06	27.59	27.59	-0.03	-0.03
Arizona St.	P12	0.06	0.06	64.52	64.52	0.02	0.02
Columbia	Ivy	0.06	0.06	26.92	26.92	-0.03	-0.03
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.06	0.06	15.62	15.62	-0.04	-0.04
Cornell	Ivy	0.06	0.06	40.74	40.74	-0.01	-0.01
Delaware	CAA	0.06	0.06	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Grand Canyon	WAC	0.06	0.06	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Illinois	B10	0.06	0.06	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.06	0.06	36.67	36.67	-0.02	-0.02
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.06	0.06	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
St. Francis PA	NEC	0.06	0.06	57.14	57.14	0.01	0.01
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.06	0.06	80.00	80.00	0.04	0.04
Mississippi	SEC	0.06	0.06	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Murray St.	OVC	0.06	0.06	82.76	82.76	0.04	0.04
Fort Wayne	Sum	0.06	0.06	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Georgia St.	SB	0.06	0.06	68.75	68.75	0.02	0.02
Houston	Amer	0.06	0.06	78.79	78.79	0.03	0.03
Quinnipiac	MAAC	0.06	0.06	36.36	36.36	-0.02	-0.02
Duke	ACC	0.06	0.06	78.79	78.79	0.03	0.03
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.06	0.06	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Syracuse	ACC	0.06	0.06	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Bradley	MVC	0.06	0.06	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Drake	MVC	0.06	0.06	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Elon	CAA	0.06	0.06	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Evansville	MVC	0.06	0.06	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
James Madison	CAA	0.06	0.06	29.03	29.03	-0.02	-0.02
Missouri St.	MVC	0.06	0.06	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Ohio St.	B10	0.06	0.06	75.00	75.00	0.03	0.03
Richmond	A10	0.06	0.06	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
San Francisco	WCC	0.06	0.06	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Tulsa	Amer	0.06	0.06	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
UC Davis	BW	0.06	0.06	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Valparaiso	MVC	0.06	0.06	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
American	Pat	0.03	0.03	20.00	20.00	-0.02	-0.02
Creighton	BE	0.03	0.03	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Denver	Sum	0.03	0.03	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Kansas St.	B12	0.03	0.03	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
Minnesota	B10	0.03	0.03	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.03	0.03	34.48	34.48	-0.01	-0.01
Eastern Washington	BSky	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Marshall	CUSA	0.03	0.03	69.70	69.70	0.01	0.01
Northern Kentucky	Horz	0.03	0.03	68.97	68.97	0.01	0.01
Oregon St.	P12	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.03	0.03	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Rice	CUSA	0.03	0.03	17.24	17.24	-0.02	-0.02
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.03	0.03	30.00	30.00	-0.01	-0.01
Western Kentucky	CUSA	0.03	0.03	69.70	69.70	0.01	0.01
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	6.67	6.67	-0.03	-0.03
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.03	0.03	24.24	24.24	-0.02	-0.02
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.03	0.03	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
UCLA	P12	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Wisconsin	B10	0.03	0.03	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Yale	Ivy	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Loyola MD	Pat	0.03	0.03	26.67	26.67	-0.01	-0.01
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.03	0.03	57.58	57.58	0.00	0.00
Rutgers	B10	0.03	0.03	42.42	42.42	-0.00	-0.00
Southern Miss	CUSA	0.03	0.03	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Tulane	Amer	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Akron	MAC	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Appalachian St.	SB	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Arizona	P12	0.03	0.03	79.41	79.41	0.02	0.02
Boise St.	MWC	0.03	0.03	73.33	73.33	0.01	0.01
Bryant	NEC	0.03	0.03	9.68	9.68	-0.02	-0.02
BYU	WCC	0.03	0.03	70.59	70.59	0.01	0.01
Dayton	A10	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
George Mason	A10	0.03	0.03	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Hawaii	BW	0.03	0.03	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
La Salle	A10	0.03	0.03	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Massachusetts	A10	0.03	0.03	39.39	39.39	-0.01	-0.01
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.03	0.03	83.33	83.33	0.02	0.02
Robert Morris	NEC	0.03	0.03	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
South Carolina	SEC	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00